A Year On: Can the Raging War in the Middle East End With a Cease-fire?
Despite international calls for a cease-fire, ongoing conflicts between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah show no signs of resolution as talks stall
Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon entered its second year this week, with international calls for a cease-fire continuing as concerns grow that the conflict could escalate. Though the conflicts are interconnected, they are being fought under different circumstances, which may affect their outcomes.
Gaza
The conflict between Hamas and Israel began when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, resulting in approximately 1,200 deaths and thousands of injuries. This prompted Israel to launch its largest offensive in Gaza since disengaging from the territory in 2005. Hamas also kidnapped 250 people, with 101 still in captivity. Israel’s stated war aims are to secure the hostages’ release and to dismantle Hamas’s control over Gaza.
On the attack’s first anniversary, global calls for a cease-fire were renewed.
An early cease-fire, lasting one week, collapsed with both sides blaming each other. During that period, over 100 hostages were released. Fighting resumed and escalated, and since then, Israel and Hamas have intermittently engaged in indirect negotiations aimed at achieving a cease-fire and a gradual release of the remaining hostages.
While in recent months Israel has reduced its military presence in Gaza, it is still very much present with troops stationed in critical areas, conducting pinpoint operations and continuous airstrikes.
“A cease-fire now is very unlikely,” John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point, told The Media Line. “When you have irrational an actor such as Hamas, whose main interest is survival and with Israel having the goal of them not surviving as a political and military organization—this makes it really hard to come to a deal, despite the US and others trying to achieve incremental and other types of deals.”
A cease-fire now is very unlikely
With Israel recently shifting its focus to its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, cease-fire talks have diminished, though some reports indicate efforts are ongoing. Hamas’s demands for a cease-fire remain unchanged, requiring a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a halt to military actions. Israel, which has pledged not to let Hamas remain in power, rejects these terms.
Based on past experience, there is no immediate room for a breakthrough right now
“Based on past experience, there is no immediate room for a breakthrough right now,” Joost Hiltermann, program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group think tank, told The Media Line. “It seems the US is not ready to put the required pressure on Israel and it remains to be seen if Hamas agrees to the terms of a cease-fire and whether it acts in good faith.”
The Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry reports that over 41,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began. These numbers have not been independently verified, and it is unclear how many of the dead are civilians. Israel maintains that most of those killed are Hamas members. The high death toll and extensive destruction in Gaza have led to tensions between the Israeli government and the US administration. The White House acknowledged delaying the delivery of precision-guided bombs to pressure Israel to scale back its operations, but the effort was unsuccessful as Israel continued its offensive.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces domestic and international pressure to make concessions and end the war to secure the release of the hostages. Critics accuse him of prioritizing his political survival over the hostages and imposing insurmountable conditions on cease-fire negotiations.
“Israel has said it has accepted cease-fire conditions but then Netanyahu blocked them,” said Hiltermann. “It looks like defeating and destroying Hamas is more important than the lives of the hostages.”
Hamas, a prominent actor on the Palestinian political stage for decades, is also part of a network of Iranian-backed groups aimed at Israel’s destruction.
“This is proxy-war with non-state actors, with the Islamic regime in Iran using, funding, training and equipping them,” said Spencer. “You cannot have a conversation about a cease-fire without addressing the Islamic regime’s protection of its proxies.”
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Israel is believed to be on the brink of a military strike against Iran following a massive ballistic missile offensive launched by the Islamic Republic. A prolonged, direct confrontation between these adversaries could significantly impact the conflict in Gaza.
Lebanon
Hezbollah, another Iranian proxy, joined the conflict by attacking Israel a day after Hamas’s offensive, claiming its aim was to support the Palestinians. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated by Israel last month, had vowed to continue missile strikes as long as the war in Gaza persisted. For nearly a year, Israel largely contained its response, with both sides adhering to unspoken boundaries. However, the situation escalated after Nasrallah’s killing and other Israeli operations against Hezbollah. Israel then launched a ‘limited’ ground operation, gradually increasing its troop presence in southern Lebanon while conducting extensive airstrikes.
Reports suggested that Hezbollah might agree to a cease-fire with Israel before an agreement is reached in Gaza. However, the group swiftly denied these claims.
“Chances for a cease-fire here are greater,” said Hiltermann. “There have been efforts which have also been undermined by Netanyahu. I don’t know if his position has changed now that Israel has made further gains in Lebanon, whether Israel has reached a point where it can negotiate terms that will allow Israel to achieve its objectives.”
US-led negotiations have been ongoing throughout the conflict, but progress remains limited. Israel has evacuated around 60,000 residents from its northern areas, which are under continuous Hezbollah rocket fire. Its stated objective is to secure the safe return of civilians to their homes.
“There are capabilities here for both sides to achieve their goals,” said Spencer. “Hezbollah wanted to assist in the attack on Israel, it can already say it has achieved its goal and can call it a victory. Israel will be able to achieve its requirements and clear Hezbollah from southern Lebanon to a certain line, creating a new border and security environment that allows citizens to go back.”
Unlike its objectives in Gaza, Spencer noted, “Israel has never said its goal is the complete destruction of Hezbollah’s military capabilities.”
“There are a lot of political negotiations to be held,” he added.
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has been violent and ongoing for decades. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), present for decades, has not effectively curbed Hezbollah’s threatening presence along Israel’s northern border.
“UNIFIL would continue its operations, though its mandate could be expanded via the UN Security Council as part of a cease-fire,” said Hiltermann.
Israel and Hamas have intermittently engaged in indirect negotiations aimed at reaching a cease-fire and gradually releasing the hostages.
This isn’t just Israel’s problem, this is a problem for the Security Council to address
“This isn’t just Israel’s problem, this is a problem for the Security Council to address,” said Spencer.
A more effective international force than UNIFIL could be instrumental in maintaining a cease-fire once achieved.
On Wednesday, Israeli Channel 12 reported that Mossad’s chief is promoting a deal in which Israel would cease military action against Hezbollah and possibly Iran if Hamas releases the hostages. While this report has not been confirmed by Israeli officials, it indicates a potential shift in Israel’s policy, which has previously aimed to separate the conflicts on different fronts.
Is there a recipe for ending a war?
“There is no cookie-cutter approach to ending wars and no rules for how they end,” said Hiltermann.
Although Hamas and Hezbollah share the ultimate goal of destroying Israel, their differing interests may lead to separate resolutions.
“International pressure in these two conflicts is particularly important,” Hiltermann added. “This also would require cease-fire monitoring and some kind of incentives and disincentives for sticking to or breaking a cease-fire.”
History is filled with wars and cease-fires.
Spencer suggests that the Korean War of the 1950s offers a parallel to the current Middle East conflict.
“The Korean War never really ended, and China was directly involved,” he said, alluding to Iran’s involvement in the current conflict. “There was a creation of a demilitarized zone (DMZ), a separation between the two Koreas and mutual acknowledgment that the other side was going to exist.”
Several Israeli defense officials have suggested that creating DMZs in northern Gaza and southern Lebanon could be a component of ending the conflict and managing future hostilities. Israel’s current military strategy focuses on clearing these areas of armed fighters, tunnels, and outposts that threaten its border communities.
“It is on Israel to create the conditions in order for this to succeed in the long run,” said Spencer.
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh offers another parallel.
“Some wars, like the Iran-Iraq war, end in mutual exhaustion, others end with the defeat of one side like the American defeat of Iraq in Kuwait,” Hiltermann said. “Each case is unique, and the circumstances of both Gaza and Lebanon need to be looked at individually while trying not to make too much of past experiences.”
