As US-Egypt Relations Strain, China Expands Influence in Cairo
Egypt is deepening ties with China through infrastructure, trade, and emerging defense cooperation, even as it maintains its US alliance. Analysts say Beijing's patient, investment-driven strategy is reshaping regional alignments
While Egypt continues to uphold its longstanding military partnership with the United States, a series of recent developments ranging from defense cooperation to infrastructure investment point to a deepening engagement with the People’s Republic of China. Against a backdrop of global competition between Washington and Beijing, Cairo is increasingly positioning itself to diversify its strategic relationships.
The Egyptians have been feeling that their great power ally, the United States, is becoming very embarrassing for them. They’re beginning to turn their attention to other players, mainly China.
“The Egyptians have been feeling that their great power ally, the United States, is becoming very embarrassing for them,” Walid Kazziha, a former professor at the American University in Cairo, said to The Media Line. “They’re beginning to turn their attention to other players, mainly China.”
Tensions in the US-Egypt relationship are not new. However, recent American policy decisions—such as proposals under the Trump administration that appeared to marginalize Egypt’s traditional diplomatic role in Gaza—have contributed to a perception of diminished strategic alignment.
In contrast, Beijing has steadily expanded its influence through economic investment and soft-power diplomacy. China’s role in constructing Egypt’s new administrative capital, located east of Cairo, is a prominent example. The project, one of the most ambitious urban developments in the region, has received significant Chinese financial and technical support.
In the case of the new capital, China is not only lending—it is investing. That’s quite different from China’s usual pattern, and it tells you Egypt is seen as more than just another Belt and Road stop.
“In the case of the new capital, China is not only lending—it is investing,” Alicia García-Herrero, senior research fellow at Bruegel, explained to The Media Line. “That’s quite different from China’s usual pattern, and it tells you Egypt is seen as more than just another Belt and Road stop.”
García-Herrero also emphasized that this relationship is not merely a recent phenomenon. “Egypt, not as much as Pakistan, but still has a long-term relationship with China, which goes back to the crisis of the Suez Canal, where Egypt was supported by China,” she noted. “It also explains why China has invested so heavily in infrastructure around the Suez.”
China’s engagement in Egypt has historically focused on infrastructure and trade. However, there are emerging indicators of closer security cooperation. While unconfirmed officially, Israeli and regional observers’ reports suggest Egyptian pilots have trained on Chinese aircraft, and Chinese defense technologies are increasingly visible in Egyptian procurement discussions.
“There has been a sighting of Egyptian pilots flying Chinese fighter jets,” Kazziha said. “That’s something that has drawn attention from the Israelis. They monitor these things very closely.”
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According to both analysts, China’s growing appeal lies in its relatively unconditional approach to military sales, contrasting with the restrictions typically attached to Western arms transfers.
The West has been stingy in giving the Egyptians the kinds of military equipment they need. Now the Chinese will flood the market with more relaxed terms.
“The West has been stingy in giving the Egyptians the kinds of military equipment they need,” said Kazziha. “Now the Chinese will flood the market with more relaxed terms.”
While China currently maintains no confirmed permanent military presence in Egypt, analysts suggest that its economic and logistical entrenchment, especially within the Suez Canal Economic Zone, could lay the groundwork for more formal security cooperation in the future.
“There are no permanent troops yet,” said García-Herrero. “But Egypt could very well be next. The Free Trade Zone around the Suez is already a site of strategic interest. This kind of presence—economic first, security-linked later—is a pattern we’ve seen before.”
“When I say it’s present, it’s like dual technology—weapons sales, not troops,” she clarified. “It’s not a declared military base. This is different from places like Cambodia or Djibouti, where we have confirmation.”
This model aligns with China’s broader regional posture, emphasizing long-term engagement, neutrality in local conflicts, and strategic patience. That approach has earned Beijing credibility in diplomatic arenas where Washington has struggled to gain trust.
For instance, earlier this year, China’s role in mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran highlighted its growing influence as a neutral broker. Analysts suggest such interventions reinforce Beijing’s status as a credible actor in a region often shaped by high-stakes rivalries.
The Chinese played a major role in bringing the Saudis and Iranians together. The United States cannot play that role because of its aggressive position toward Iran. So Beijing is clearly respected in that sense.
“The Chinese played a major role in bringing the Saudis and Iranians together,” Kazziha said. “The United States cannot play that role because of its aggressive position toward Iran. So Beijing is clearly respected in that sense.”
Despite strengthening ties, economic asymmetry remains a challenge. Egypt’s exports to China remain modest compared to the surge in Chinese imports, creating a persistent trade imbalance.
“Egypt’s exports to China are under $2 billion, while China’s exports to Egypt have only grown,” said García-Herrero. “The trade deficit is over $10 billion, which is a substantial burden for Egypt.”
Nevertheless, China’s growing presence is visible across Egyptian society, from the influx of electric vehicles and electronics to the transformation of cityscapes through Chinese-built infrastructure.
“Two years ago, I would’ve said the Chinese don’t stand a chance,” noted Kazziha. “But now everyone is shifting from their Chevrolets and Volvos to MGs and BYDs. The Chinese car market has overwhelmed Egypt.”
The implications of this reorientation extend beyond bilateral relations. For decades, Egypt has been a cornerstone of US strategy in the Middle East. A closer alignment with China—even if partial—could significantly reshape regional dynamics, particularly in relation to Gulf states and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Syrians, the Iraqis, the Palestinians—they’re not satisfied with Gulf leadership. They would turn to Egypt again. And with that comes the possibility of a renewed Arab Israeli confrontation on a larger scale.
“If Egypt switches, the Middle East as a whole will feel the impact,” Kazziha warned. “The Syrians, the Iraqis, the Palestinians—they’re not satisfied with Gulf leadership. They would turn to Egypt again. And with that comes the possibility of a renewed Arab Israeli confrontation on a larger scale.”
For now, Egypt continues to maintain ties with both Washington and Beijing. However, analysts note that the balance is increasingly tilting toward the latter, as Chinese engagement becomes more sophisticated and multidimensional.
“They are establishing solid relationships in the region,” Kazziha concluded. “They’re not in a hurry. They’re waiting for their moment—not with bombs, but with offers.”
