What Options Does Israel Have in Dealing with Hamas in Gaza?
Israel could control new border lines, hold direct hostage negotiations or force the extradition of Hamas leaders from Qatar
Ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas are at an impasse as the fighting between the two rivals continues and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza threatens to spiral out of control.
Over the weekend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump acknowledged that the indirect talks, which have been held in Qatar for several weeks now, have essentially collapsed.
Hamas didn’t really want to make a deal. I think they want to die
“Hamas didn’t really want to make a deal. I think they want to die,” President Trump told reporters outside the White House on Friday, as both the US and Israel pulled their negotiating teams from Doha.
With no end in sight and after almost two years of fighting, Israel is left with few options that will bring an end to the fighting in Gaza.
Since the beginning of the war, which started when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has laid out two goals for its war.
Netanyahu vowed to end the rule of the Hamas terrorist organization, stripping it of its ability to control Gaza. He also promised to release all of the Israeli hostages who were kidnapped on that day. Of the 250 Hamas kidnapped, 50 Israeli hostages remain in captivity. The majority of them are believed to be dead. Twenty are presumed alive, although there is no confirmation of this.
For its part, Hamas has maintained it will only release the hostages if Israel agrees to withdraw from Gaza completely and vows not to renew the war against it.
Early Sunday, the Israeli military airdropped humanitarian aid into Gaza for the first time since the war began. It was an attempt to fend off mounting international condemnation of starvation in the war-torn territory. Israel also announced an indefinite daily 10-hour humanitarian pause in several areas in Gaza. These steps come as Israel contemplates its next moves against the stubborn rival it has yet to subdue.
Israel has hesitated throughout the war as the options that remain are risky and far from ideal. However, as negotiations appear to have reached an impasse, Netanyahu is facing a critical juncture in the war, with far-reaching decisions to be made. While the Israeli military has successfully eliminated most of Hamas’ Gaza leadership and struck many of its arms depots and capabilities, Hamas remains standing. More of the same fighting is unlikely to lead to the destruction of Hamas.
Hamas is the obstacle to a hostage release deal
“Hamas is the obstacle to a hostage release deal. Together with our US allies, we are now considering alternative options to bring our hostages home, end Hamas’s terror rule, and secure lasting peace for Israel and our region,” a statement released by Netanyahu read on Friday.
What are those options?
Military Rule in Gaza
Israel has toyed with the notion of military rule in Gaza since early on in the fighting. The army brass is reportedly reluctant to implement such an arrangement, hesitant to rule over 2 million Palestinians in the hostile territory. From within his coalition, Netanyahu faces far-right senior members who have been pushing for a complete occupation of Gaza since Hamas’ surprise offensive.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are believed to be in complete control of 75% of the Gaza Strip, as instructed by the government. It remains to be seen whether Netanyahu will order the army to do the same with the remaining territory, some of which the IDF has not operated in at all. Such action would likely put the hostages at risk, as they are believed to be in those precise areas, but also require an even greater number of boots on the ground—something the army is struggling with as the war drags on. Hamas has likely fortified its positions in places where the IDF hasn’t operated, increasing the possibility of a rise in military casualties.
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We are now at a stage where the decisions about the army’s next steps are derivative of political considerations rather than military ones
“We are now at a stage where the decisions about the army’s next steps are derivative of political considerations rather than military ones,” said Brig. Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi, founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum. “A full occupation of Gaza means obliterating Hamas completely, but it also means a full military rule.”
According to Avivi, another option is the transition to attrition. “This would mean completely clearing 75% of the territory, which is currently in IDF control, of terrorists and operating from those new border lines in order to attack Hamas persistently in the remaining 25% until submission,” he explained, saying the IDF prefers this option.
Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, a senior researcher at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University and former acting director general of Israel’s Strategic Affairs Ministry, believes Israel’s only option now is to reach an agreement for the end of the war—one that will see the release of all the hostages and the withdrawal of all Israeli forces.
Hamas understands that someone else will govern Gaza
“Hamas will not remain in power as part of this agreement,” Har-Zvi told The Media Line. “It might not leave Gaza, and it may not be disarmed, but Hamas understands that someone else will govern Gaza.”
For some Israelis, and much of the Netanyahu-led far-right coalition, this will be considered a defeat. Arab countries, such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, which have promised to be part of Gaza’s rehabilitation, will be reluctant to enter the territory if Hamas still plays a dominant role in its governance.
Hostage Rescue Operations
Until now, barring a few bold rescue operations that led to the release of eight living hostages and 46 bodies, the majority of the living hostages have been released through negotiations that led to temporary ceasefires. Military strategies to release the remaining hostages haven’t been pursued, likely because they are deemed to put the captives at very high risk. The majority of the hostages are believed to be hidden deep underground in Hamas’ extensive tunnel network.
Israeli media reported over the weekend that Hamas has instructed its captors to be on high alert for such missions now that the talks have collapsed, telling them to shoot the hostages in case of a rescue attempt immediately.
Meeting with hostage families in Washington over the weekend, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly told the concerned relatives that “serious rethinking” needs to be done.
Israel may choose to enter all of the areas it hasn’t yet, impose a siege on them, and conduct direct negotiations with the captors in an attempt to release hostages
“Israel may choose to enter all of the areas it hasn’t yet, impose a siege on them, and conduct direct negotiations with the captors in an attempt to release hostages,” said Avivi. “This may also create opportunities for rescue operations. This is a realistic option that is not without risk.”
The issue of the hostages has caused a rift between Israelis who believe increased military pressure is the only way to get Hamas to surrender and those who believe only negotiations will bring the desired outcome.
The only way to get back the hostages is through a deal
“The only way to get back the hostages is through a deal,” said Har-Zvi. “An intensification of the military effort will have devastating consequences for them, and this is Israel’s moral imperative and its most important goal.”
Hamas Leadership in Qatar
Hamas’ political leadership has based itself abroad—mainly in Qatar, but also in Lebanon and Algeria. Israel has carried out targeted killings against Hamas’ senior leadership in Lebanon but has refrained from doing so in Qatar, due to its pivotal—and also questionable—role in the ceasefire negotiations.
It has gotten to a point where Israel is going to have to finish the job
“I think what’s going to happen is they’re going to be hunted down,” Trump also said on Friday, referring to Hamas’ leadership under threat after the collapse of the talks. “It has gotten to a point where Israel is going to have to finish the job.”
Israel and the US may also demand the deportation of the leaders from Qatar in an attempt to pressure them to agree to a deal.
Netanyahu needs to use all of his influence over Trump in order to get the US to demand Hamas terrorists’ extradition from Qatar
“Hamas’ decision-making is in Qatar, where terrorists live in five-star hotels where they are not bothered with the situation in Gaza,” said Avivi. “Netanyahu needs to use all of his influence over Trump to get the US to demand Hamas terrorists’ extradition from Qatar. This could be a game-changer regarding the hostages and could possibly secure an even better deal than what was just on the table.”
Qatar is a key US ally in the Middle East and home to a large American military base. In 2011, former President Barack Obama asked the Qataris to permanently host Hamas’ political leadership, thinking it would grant easier access to the group. Qatar is Hamas’ main benefactor while also maintaining a tricky position as a mediator.
“Qatar still has major leverage it can use against Hamas,” said Har-Zvi, explaining why Israel has refrained from operating against Hamas’ leadership in the country. “Also, Hamas leaders in Qatar serve as a communication channel to Hamas’ military leadership in Gaza.”
“Israel needs to see how to increase pressure on the Qataris in order for them to increase pressure on Hamas,” he added. “The US, with extensive interests in Qatar, will be reluctant to apply significant pressure on it.”
As Israel pauses to make a major decision, it has begun taking steps to mitigate the humanitarian crisis and the subsequent international outcry.
If nothing is done, it will only get worse for Israel and for the hostages
“The situation is dynamic,” said Har-Zvi. “If nothing is done, it will only get worse for Israel and for the hostages.
