[TBILISI] The picturesque coastline of Georgia’s Black Sea often conjures images of idyllic vacations, but in 2025, it also marks a fault line in the country’s political and geopolitical identity. The streets of Tbilisi are awash in protest and division following a disputed election, with Georgia’s future orientation—West or East—hanging in the balance.
At the heart of the conversation is Victor Kipiani, Chair of the influential think tank Geocase and founding partner of MKD Law. A prominent voice in Georgian public life, Kipiani sat down with The Media Line to discuss the geopolitical challenges Georgia faces and the increasingly complex choices before it.
Kipiani acknowledges the growing divide within Georgia, which has widened under the ruling Georgian Dream Party. “There is quite a big controversy in the country, to put it very mildly,” Kipiani said. “That controversy reflects in squeezing out the Western matrix from Georgia.”
He explains that the “Western matrix” refers not only to geography or alliances but to a system of governance: rule of law, accountability, transparency. In his view, these elements are now under threat, just as Georgia was poised to begin EU accession talks. “Unfortunately for us, those relations went to the south,” Kipiani added, referring to the formal suspension of those talks.
The war in Ukraine is not just about Ukraine,” he said. “It’s about the balance of power in the wider region.
The question of Russian reoccupation is far from academic. As Kipiani put it, Georgia exists in “the prison of geography.” Its volatile position in the South Caucasus makes security inherently precarious, and the war in Ukraine only heightens the stakes. “The war in Ukraine is not just about Ukraine,” he said. “It’s about the balance of power in the wider region.”
Kipiani also points to the lingering impact of the Third Nagorno-Karabakh War, which has “created a completely different geopolitical and security landscape in the region.” These developments, he argues, shape Georgia’s defensive posture and emphasize the constant threat posed by Moscow.
Rumors of backdoor diplomacy with Russia abound, but Kipiani is cautious. “I’m not entirely sure if there are any backdoor meetings,” he said. The only formal platform, he notes, is the Geneva Format. While he doesn’t dismiss informal dialogue—business-to-business, think tank to think tank—he emphasizes that there is “no smoking gun.”
Still, he supports the idea of Track 1.5 or Track 2 diplomacy to help both sides “understand each other’s concerns better than people at the official level sometimes do.”
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The South Caucasus these days is not any less complex than the Middle East
Kipiani paints a dense and shifting regional landscape. Russia remains a regional hegemon with enduring influence. The post-Karabakh power vacuum has also drawn in new actors, complicating the calculus. “The South Caucasus these days is not any less complex than the Middle East,” he observed.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are both strengthening their alliances, raising questions about how much autonomy countries like Georgia retain. The Black Sea, Kipiani reminds us, is not just a body of water; it’s a geopolitical battleground.
Georgia’s pivot to the West once seemed inevitable. Now, momentum is in doubt. Kipiani laments the rollback in Western integration, particularly the EU. “Accession talks have not been opened,” he said bluntly. The vitriol in Georgian political discourse has also alarmed observers. “Very vitriolic language by Georgian stakeholders when it comes to the West, when it comes to the EU,” he noted.
This regression, he argues, is not just a Georgian phenomenon but part of a broader Eurasian struggle between Western and revisionist powers.
The United States is not a Black Sea nation but should become a Black Sea power
Kipiani is candid about the United States’ role—or lack thereof—in the Black Sea. “The United States is not a Black Sea nation but should become a Black Sea power,” he quoted from an article he admired. He’s encouraged by US congressional discussions around the Black Sea Security Act but notes that American posture in the region must also navigate its relationship with Turkey, which holds key levers under the Montreux Convention.
“The Black Sea is not just about geography,” Kipiani said. “It’s about ripple effects on Black Sea nations and beyond.”
Kipiani describes a painful unraveling of what was once a strategic relationship. The 2009 Strategic Charter of Partnership signed after the Russia-Georgia war is now suspended. So are key defense and education programs. “That charter at this point is suspended,” he confirmed. Still, he believes the damage is reversible. “Once the situation on the ground changes, the reversal to the status quo … would be restored, if not immediately, then quickly enough.”
Private sector efforts, including think tanks and business groups, are keeping the flame alive. “Keeping that thread of healthy communication is very important,” he stressed.
Georgia’s hopes for NATO membership remain aspirational. “Georgia is not a formal member of NATO,” Kipiani said, “but we did have different programs of cooperation.” The most significant of these, the NATO-Georgia Substantial Package, is now also on hold.
Why? Kipiani blames Georgia’s internal democratic backsliding and its rollback of Western alignment. “Diversification should not be taking place at the expense of existing relations,” he warned.
Many Georgians and many Israelis would agree with me that it’s really hard to find any second country with such strong pro-Israeli attitudes
One of the few bilateral relationships that appears to be thriving is between Georgia and Israel. “Many Georgians and many Israelis would agree with me that it’s really hard to find any second country with such strong pro-Israeli attitudes like Georgia,” Kipiani said. Whether for business or leisure, Israelis are flocking to Georgia—more than 150,000 visited in the last quarter alone.
Kipiani attributes this phenomenon to something deeper than diplomacy. “Perhaps it’s a feeling of having a second home,” he said. “That’s something which could not be taught… it is either there by some magic of the heaven.”
As for Kipiani’s own future? He keeps it open-ended. “Never say never,” he said. Service to country, in any form, remains a calling. “It’s always a privilege and a responsibility.”
Georgia’s future remains also remains open-ended, as the country carefully navigates a delicate balance between Russia and the West.
