Trump Touts Ceasefire Success as Gaza Deal Looms; Experts Warn Against Repeating Iran’s Mistakes
Critics say the Iran war bought Israel time but left core threats intact. Without lasting solutions, a Hamas ceasefire could become another “short-term fix with long-term consequences,” one expert warns.
During the high-stakes NATO summit in The Hague, US President Donald Trump hailed the recent American-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Iran as a monumental diplomatic success, asserting that it may soon open the door to a similar breakthrough in Gaza. “We’ve achieved peace once, we’ll do it again,” Trump said, referring to the fragile yet holding truce that halted 12 days of escalating attacks between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
As indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas gain momentum in Doha, officials across the region are weighing how likely it is that the two sides achieve a ceasefire—and whether doing so would actually mark a turning point.
The model of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has now shown it can be done. A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas should be even easier. But if it’s forced through without addressing the root causes, it will just deepen the damage.
“The model of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has now shown it can be done,” Nidal Foqaha, director general of the Ramallah-based Palestinian Peace Coalition—Geneva Initiative, told The Media Line. “A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas should be even easier. But if it’s forced through without addressing the root causes, it will just deepen the damage.”
At the center of both negotiations is Qatar, the Gulf state that facilitated the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and is now acting as mediator between Israel and Hamas. Its influence has raised both praise and alarm.
“They came out as the winners of this war,” Kobi Michael, senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, told The Media Line. “They coordinated Iran’s retaliation on US soil, positioned themselves as the ultimate mediator, not just regionally, but globally. President Trump didn’t negotiate with the Iranians directly. He did it through Qatar.”
Michael underscored that Qatar’s role went beyond diplomacy. “They even coordinated the Iranian retaliation against the US bombing of Fordo, including the attack on the American base in Qatar itself. That shows how far they went in playing both sides,” he said.
He warned that Washington’s growing reliance on Doha has come at a cost. “President Trump is so happy with this result that he’s softening US pressure on Qatar regarding its ongoing support for Hamas,” Michael said. “That’s the problem. The Americans were hijacked by the Qataris.”
Qatar’s long-standing ties to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood continue to raise concerns in Israeli and regional policy circles. “Together with Turkey, they are the biggest supporters of political Islam,” Michael said. “They want Hamas to stay in Gaza—and to dominate the entire Palestinian political arena. Their vision is to reestablish an Islamic caliphate.”
Foqaha sees Qatar’s role in the Palestinian issue as more grounded. “Unlike the Iranians, the Palestinian cause is part of Qatar’s national interest,” he said. “They’re already exerting huge efforts to mediate and save lives. But Qatar must apply real pressure on Hamas, just as the US must do with Israel. There is no other way.”
While the Iran ceasefire has thus far held, many believe it came too early, leaving critical vulnerabilities in place. “It would have been preferable if the ceasefire had come a week later,” Michael said. “Israel could have inflicted further damage to the regime’s military and nuclear infrastructure, which might have facilitated a push for regime change from within.”
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“We’re now dealing with a fragile, frightened regime,” he continued. “But they remain intact. They know that rebuilding their nuclear facilities will take time, resources, and secrecy—and we’re watching. Israel has air superiority, freedom of military action, and intelligence surveillance, with full American backing.”
Trump allowed the war with Iran to start—and then he stopped it. That’s not an achievement,. Only when there is a durable ceasefire in Gaza will we be able to assess whether Trump’s role has been positive. Otherwise, we risk another short-term fix with long-term consequences.
Foqaha, while supportive of halting further bloodshed, echoed concern that the Iranian model may repeat in Gaza. “Trump allowed the war with Iran to start—and then he stopped it. That’s not an achievement,” he said. “Only when there is a durable ceasefire in Gaza will we be able to assess whether Trump’s role has been positive. Otherwise, we risk another short-term fix with long-term consequences.”
He added that conflating the Iranian case with Gaza is misleading. “I never believed Iran would act in the interest of Palestinians. Their priority is their own national interest—not ours,” he said. “It’s us Palestinians who must care for our people and create an opportunity for them to return to a normal life.”
After nearly two years of conflict, which Gaza health officials report has killed more than 60,000 Palestinians, the war is widely seen as approaching its conclusion. But what form that conclusion takes remains contested.
“This war has no more goals to achieve,” said Foqaha. “It is only bringing more suffering, and the daily killing of Palestinians—many of them while standing in line for food—must not be allowed to continue.
“Hamas must realize that the circumstances in Gaza leave them with no margin for maneuver,” he added. “It’s no longer about who holds power—it’s about how to save Gaza’s population. That must be the top priority.”
Only the IDF is willing and capable of dismantling Hamas as an organized military and governmental entity. Israel must finalize its military objectives and clear the way for the creation of an alternative civilian governance—supported by Arab countries and affiliated with the Palestinian Authority.
Michael believes the only viable resolution must include the complete dismantling of Hamas’ military and governing apparatus. “Only the IDF is willing and capable of dismantling Hamas as an organized military and governmental entity,” he said. “Israel must finalize its military objectives and clear the way for the creation of an alternative civilian governance, supported by Arab countries and affiliated with the Palestinian Authority.”
Foqaha does not dispute Hamas’ political future entirely but insists change is necessary. “Hamas will not disappear as a movement. But they know that no actor in the Middle East is willing to deal with them if they remain an armed group,” he said. “If Hamas wants to remain politically relevant, it must give up its weapons. If they do, international and regional positions may shift accordingly.”
Like Michael, many have called for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to be involved in the governance of a postwar Gaza. But the PA has also been widely criticized for its inertia and lack of reform.
“Unfortunately, the PA is relatively weak and not in a position to respond effectively to fast-paced developments like those we saw between Israel and Iran,” Foqaha admitted. “But even with its flaws, there is no alternative when it comes to the legal and national representation of the Palestinian people.”
He added that the PA must be “politically and financially empowered” to provide basic governance in both Gaza and the West Bank. “If given the proper tools, the PA can at least partially respond to the population’s needs,” he said.
Michael agreed, but underlined the importance of serious internal reforms. “Any return of the PA to Gaza must come through a significant revitalization process,” he said. “Over a period of three to five years, we could see the emergence of a loose Palestinian federation—one province in Gaza, one in the West Bank—possibly later linked to a Jordanian-Palestinian confederation within a new regional architecture.”
With the weakening of Iran’s regional proxies and the military rollback of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli officials are increasingly optimistic about wider normalization prospects.
“Syria and Lebanon are now the first candidates to join the Abraham Accords,” Michael said. “After the collapse of Hezbollah, we’ve seen Lebanon liberated politically. Syria, with Bashar Assad now out and al-Sharaa in power, is facing a new reality.”
Still, he warned, “The situation in both countries remains fragile. Normalization with Israel won’t happen tomorrow—it will be a long-term process. But it will begin with de facto cooperation: energy, agriculture, water, infrastructure—even before official diplomatic ties.”
Saudi Arabia has said it repeatedly: a credible path toward Palestinian statehood is essential. Countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia must lead in establishing a new regional framework—with Palestine at its center.
Foqaha emphasized that no regional transformation will succeed without resolving the Palestinian question. “Saudi Arabia has said it repeatedly: a credible path toward Palestinian statehood is essential,” he said. “Countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia must lead in establishing a new regional framework—with Palestine at its center.”
While President Trump’s recent remarks exude confidence in American diplomacy, experts on both sides caution against mistaking tactical pauses for strategic resolution. The ceasefire with Iran, while welcomed, has so far failed to fundamentally alter the balance of power. Gaza could follow the same path if diplomacy is driven by deadlines rather than solutions.
“If we don’t close the Gaza file properly—militarily, politically, and diplomatically—there will be no real progress in the region,” Michael said.
