Warnings Mount as Israel Prepares Ground Assault in Gaza’s Rafah

Prime Minister Netanyahu stands firm on Rafah operation plans despite international concerns and humanitarian alarms

The Israeli military is preparing for a ground operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, in what it believes is the stronghold of the Gaza-based Hamas terrorist organization.

Preparations have been going on for weeks, as the operation is expected to be a complicated one with international and legal implications that Israel is taking into consideration.

Israeli officials, including senior military officers and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have vowed to operate in the city, despite warnings from the international community and humanitarian organizations.

Those who say that under no circumstances should we enter Rafah are basically saying, ‘Lose the war. Keep Hamas there.’

In an interview aired Sunday on ABC, Netanyahu responded to some of those warnings.

“Those who say that under no circumstances should we enter Rafah are basically saying, ‘Lose the war. Keep Hamas there,’” he said.

The war between Israel and Hamas began with a surprise offensive carried out by the terrorist organization on October 7. The attack killed approximately 1.200 Israelis and wounded thousands more. In addition, Hamas and other organizations, succeeded in kidnapping over 250 people, the majority of them Israeli civilians.

In response, Israel launched a massive air, ground, and naval offensive on the Gaza Strip. Since it began, the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry has reported that almost 28,000 Palestinians have been killed and over 67,000 injured. In addition, the United Nations estimates that 1.7 million people have been displaced, many of them huddled in Rafah with nowhere to return to, as over 65,000 housing units have been reduced to rubble. Over 230 Israeli soldiers have been killed in the ground operation in the Gaza Strip.

Israel set out its goals—to topple Hamas and release all the hostages. Both goals are tied heavily to Rafah. Hamas’ senior leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, are believed to be in hiding in tunnels that run underneath Rafah and cross into Egypt. Some of the hostages are believed to be held together with Sinwar, essentially positioned as human shields, as Israel continues its manhunt against Hamas’ key figurehead in the Gaza Strip.

In the early hours of Monday, the Israeli military was successful in releasing two hostages from Rafah. The operation, which according to reports from Gaza resulted in the death of almost 70 Palestinians, was lauded in Israel as a success and used by officials as justification for the need for a ground operation in the city.

Israel has yet to operate in Rafah, delaying the operation, as it weighs the consequences of such a move. The delay is also a means of pressuring the actors and perhaps getting concessions in return for avoiding a major ground operation.

Israel … cannot afford to begin a confrontation with Egypt and risk the peace treaty

“At this point in the fighting, political pressure and manipulations are applied for various reasons,” said Brig. Gen. (ret.) Dr. Ephraim Lapid, a lecturer in the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University, a former IDF senior intelligence officer, and a senior research fellow at Europa Institute. “The main reason being the Egyptian reservations that are very concerning to Israel that cannot afford to begin a confrontation with Egypt and risk the peace treaty.”

Rafah also serves as Gaza’s border with Egypt. Israel would like to assert control over a narrow strip of land called the Philadelphi Corridor, which is approximately 13 kilometers (8 miles) long and located along that border. Egypt is concerned that an Israeli operation on its border may spill over to its territory, including a sudden influx of Palestinian refugees into Egypt.

Egyptian officials have reportedly voiced their dismay with Israel’s intention, threatening to nullify a peace treaty between the two countries which is over 40 years old.

“This is a threat, not an ultimatum. But it is one Israel cannot ignore,” said Lapid. “Egypt is now also playing a critical role in the negotiations on the release of hostages and is also critical in the future of the Gaza Strip.”

According to Lapid, the best Israel can hope for is Egyptian acquiescence to an operation in Rafah.

“There will never be a public green light for such a thing,” he told The Media Line.

The narrow Philadelphi corridor has proven critical to Hamas’ efforts to gain strength since it violently took over the Gaza Strip from the hands of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in 2007. Israel, therefore, views the area as critical to its progress in toppling Hamas.

But Israel also faces a major humanitarian challenge when contemplating a ground operation there.

The Rafah population before the war was estimated at approximately 300,000 residents. It is now believed to have surpassed 2 million, as those displaced because of Israel’s military operation in the rest of the Gaza Strip, headed to the southern city weeks ago.

The major military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible plan … for ensuring the safety and support of more than 1 million people sheltering there

On Monday, US President Joe Biden warned Israel about the presence of such a large civilian population in what may soon become the focal point of the Israeli military onslaught.

“The major military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible plan … for ensuring the safety and support of more than 1 million people sheltering there. Many people there have been displaced—displaced multiple times, fleeing the violence to the north, and now they’re packed into Rafah—exposed and vulnerable. They need to be protected,” he said after meeting with King Abdullah of Jordan in Washington.

Dr. Hilly Moodrick-Even Khen, an expert in international law and chairperson of Ariel University Center for the Research and Study of Genocide, explained that the legitimacy of such an operation would be derived from the principles of proportionality and distinction.

“Civilians should not be purposely targeted,” she told The Media Line. “The principle of proportionality somehow mitigates this prohibition and makes civilian casualties legitimate when the expected military advantage is greater than the collateral damage. This is very difficult to assess.”

The situation in Rafah, in which such a large population is amassed in a small and hence very dense area, makes the setting far from sterile and entails the Israeli military treading very murky waters in terms of the legality of such an operation.

“The Israeli army has received meticulous legal consultation throughout the duration of the operation,” Moodrick-Even Khen added.

Should the order come to undertake a large-scale ground operation with the presence of many civilians present, it will make it almost impossible for the military to act effectively against Hamas.

“The army will have to take precautions to minimize the casualties,” said Moodrick-Even Khen.

In recent weeks, Israel has scaled back its ground operation in the northern Gaza Strip. There have been reports and footage surfacing on social media of a gradual return of residents to the area. The IDF declined to comment on whether it was allowing residents to return to the area.

Throughout the war, Israel has refused to discuss the future of Gaza once the military operation is completed. This has caused friction between Netanyahu and the US administration, but it has also delayed any possible resolution regarding the large, displaced population. Israel has ruled out the return of the PA to Gaza. If it successfully removes Hamas from power, someone will have to take civil responsibility in the densely populated area.

“The fact that there is no political decision in Israel on how it wants to see the Gaza Strip,” said Lapid. “The government needs a ladder to come down because right now the army doesn’t know what to do when it doesn’t have directives about what the governing model in Gaza will be.”

On Tuesday, there were reports of possible progress on a hostage release deal increase that would likely include a period in which Israel will temporarily stop its military operations in Gaza. This could cause a further delay to a wide-scale operation in Rafah.

“Israel will not give up on operating there,” said Lapid. “But it will not be in the same intensity that it operated in other areas, in which some places were completely shaved. We will see surgical operations.”