Israel’s Somaliland Move: A Red Sea Security Bet With Global Stakes
Bishop Dennis Nthumbi, Africa director of the Israel Allies Foundation, argues that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland should be read less as a diplomatic stunt and more as a hard-nosed security play in a neighborhood where wishful thinking has had a 30-year run. In his view, the international insistence that a stable, functional Somali state is right around the corner has become a dangerous illusion—and Israel’s move punctures it.
Nthumbi says the real story is the Red Sea: an Iranian-backed “terror corridor” taking shape through cooperation between the Houthis and Somalia’s al-Shabab. He portrays that collaboration as operational—moving arms and money—and warns that Iranian drone technology could soon spill deeper into the Horn of Africa. By recognizing Somaliland’s decades of de facto self-rule, Israel, he contends, gains a legitimate partner positioned to disrupt that pipeline and bolster maritime security. Somaliland, in this telling, is not the problem in northern Somalia; it is the most credible route to order.
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He dismisses condemnation from the African Union, the Arab League, and rival states as opportunistic rather than principled, pointing to regional hypocrisy: Egypt and the UAE backing opposing sides in Sudan’s civil war, and Ethiopia and Egypt locked in a Nile showdown. Israel, he argues, simply picked a camp—aligning with players such as the UAE and Ethiopia that are betting on a more stable Horn.
His prescription is blunt: The US should formalize engagement with Somaliland, and African states such as Kenya and Ethiopia should lead a rethink that treats recognition as ratifying reality, while isolating Tehran-backed networks. Read the full piece for Bishop Nthumbi’s complete case and call to action.
