Lebanon’s Presidential Election Tests Hezbollah’s Waning Influence
Lebanon’s parliament is set to vote for a new president on Thursday, ending a year-long vacancy in the role reserved for a Maronite Christian under the country’s sectarian power-sharing system. The election marks a critical test of political alliances following Hezbollah’s setbacks in its conflict with Israel and the toppling of its ally Bashar Assad in Syria.
The presidency has remained vacant since Michel Aoun’s term ended in October 2022, as Lebanon’s deeply divided parliament failed to agree on a candidate. Hezbollah and its Shi’ite ally Amal have dropped their insistence on former candidate Suleiman Frangieh, signaling a shift in strategy. Potential frontrunners now include army commander General Joseph Aoun, International Monetary Fund official Jihad Azour, and Major-General Elias al-Baysari.
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Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed optimism, stating, “God willing, tomorrow we will have a new president.” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot echoed similar hopes, emphasizing the election’s importance for Lebanon’s economic recovery.
However, analysts and officials remain cautious. To secure the presidency, a candidate must obtain 86 votes in the first round or 65 in the second. French and Saudi envoys, reflecting international interest, have engaged Lebanese politicians ahead of the vote.
The election comes amid significant regional changes, including Syria’s altered power dynamics and Hezbollah’s diminishing influence. General Aoun, seen as a favorite for his US-backed credentials, would require a constitutional amendment due to his current role in the military.
