Israel–Egypt Gas Pact Becomes a Stress Test for Regional Energy
Israel’s biggest-ever gas export deal is suddenly a litmus test for regional stability, write Jacob Wirtschafter and Mina Nader. A $35 billion pact to send Leviathan field gas to Egypt through 2040—championed as “pipeline diplomacy”—has been dragged into a public spat after Israel Hayom framed Egypt as violating the Camp David peace and reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked Energy Minister Eli Cohen to revisit the agreement. Cairo fired back. State Information Service chief Diaa Rashwan warned that canceling would boomerang on Israel’s economy, while star host Amr Adib blasted Netanyahu yet urged restraint.
Beneath the talk shows lies math. Economist Mohamed Fouad notes the contract is commercial—Chevron, NewMed, and Ratio on one side; Blue Ocean Energy on the other—and true cancellation could trigger billions in compensation. Egypt can pivot to liquified natural gas at higher cost and is courting future flows from Cyprus, but its own Zohr output has sagged about 40%, leaving Israeli molecules crucial to keeping lights on in a country of 110 million. Former Petroleum Minister Osama Kamal says a cutoff would hit Israelis in their wallets, too.
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Analysts caution against turning gas into a political lever. Bar-Ilan University’s Elai Rettig says reliability beats price and sustainability in energy security; Tel Aviv University’s Ofir Winter calls the cooperation a rare bright spot that should be insulated from politics. The feud overlaps with fresh friction over Gaza after Netanyahu floated the idea of Palestinians exiting via Rafah—an idea Egypt rejects as displacement—drawing support for Cairo from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
History looms large: the EMG pipeline once flowed Egypt-to-Israel before attacks and disputes reversed it. Today’s plan—roughly 130 bcm to Egypt by 2040—shows deep interdependence. Read the full piece by Wirtschafter and Nader for the contract details and political stakes.
