Iran’s Actions in Recent Days Reveal Hidden Hysteria

Maariv, Israel, October 6

In an uncharacteristic move, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, delivered a rare speech at the Friday prayers in Tehran, ostensibly aimed at showcasing the strength of the Islamic Republic and bolstering its deterrence against potential Israeli actions. However, his words largely underscored Iran’s precarious strategic position. Compounding this, there are indications that Israel has reportedly targeted Hashem Safieddine, the successor to Hassan Nasrallah, which complicates Iran’s efforts to restore Hezbollah’s stature amid ongoing hostilities and poses a significant threat to Iran’s “Lebanese project.” Khamenei’s address highlighted Iran’s entrenched reliance, particularly on Hezbollah and its leader, Nasrallah, to consolidate and direct the activities of its proxies across the Middle East. This is critical to deterring Israeli aggression and fortifying Iran’s influence in the region. Nasrallah’s death vividly correlates with Hezbollah’s military inadequacies against Israeli initiatives, directly impacting Iran’s security posture in the area and leaving it overly vulnerable in any future conflict with Israel. Meanwhile, Tehran attempts to dissuade Israel from launching attacks by dispatching Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on diplomatic missions to Syria and Lebanon to maintain the resistance axis. However, it appears Tehran has misjudged the geopolitical landscape. Unlike its attack on Israel on April 14, Iran’s capacity to mobilize its allies or the international community to deter Israeli aggression has significantly diminished. Despite these setbacks, Iran should not be underestimated. The more it feels cornered, the more inclined it might be to make advances in its nuclear program, perhaps even enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels to enhance its deterrence. Last week’s developments also highlighted the advancements Iran has made in its missile capabilities in recent months. Considering these dynamics, if Israel is determined to launch an attack on Iran, it must carefully deliberate its objectives. Should Israel aim to contain the scope of the conflict and preserve its strategic ties with Washington—especially since the US opposes strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil reserves—Israel must select its targets with these aims in mind. Regardless, given the likely Iranian response to any substantial Israeli military action, further escalation seems imminent. —Danny Citrinowicz (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)