Washington, Israel, and the Future of Gaza
Al-Ittihad, UAE, June 1
Examining the role of the American mediator in the Gaza negotiations requires a nuanced approach, particularly given the steadfast support the US administration has shown for Israel since the onset of the latest war in Gaza. The American administration has consistently acted as a key ally to Tel Aviv, backing the Israeli army with weapon shipments, despite noticeable reservations and disagreements within Congress and the Senate over Israel’s unrestrained actions. These internal disagreements prompted the US State Department to expedite arms deals, classifying them as a federal emergency, thus indicating the American administration’s evolving role as a significant player in the ongoing conflict in Gaza. This evolving partnership is evident not only in the administration’s efforts to supply Israel with armaments but also in its willingness to heed the Department of Defense’s proposal for a permanent military base in southern Israel. Such moves underscore a growing and influential US role in the region, aligned closely with Israeli security arrangements even as efforts toward a cease-fire or strategic operations continue. This ongoing security and strategic coordination aims to prepare for various operational scenarios, providing both American and Israeli forces with enhanced capabilities. The US administration appears unlikely to disengage from Gaza. Instead, it is poised to deepen its political and strategic involvement through elements of CENTCOM operating in the Middle East. This may include appointing an American commander for security and administrative roles in Gaza, reminiscent of the appointment of Paul Bremer in Iraq. The reality on the ground suggests that the Israeli occupation, even if prolonged, will eventually necessitate dealing with the population of Gaza. This signals Washington’s transformation into an active and influential partner due to concerns over the situation in Gaza affecting the American political landscape. The deteriorating situation could impact US elections, eroding President Joe Biden’s popularity and straining relations within his party, particularly among progressive youth dissatisfied with current policies. Despite these dynamics, and given the ongoing developments in eastern Rafah, the US will likely continue its security arrangements in coordination with Israel and regional partners, irrespective of the truce’s success. This underscores the primary focus of both American and Israeli governments on leveraging time to build integrated political and strategic partnerships for Gaza and the broader region. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s steadfast commitment to military action in eastern Rafah, despite evolving on-ground realities and calls from the War Council to return to negotiations, reflects a message of unwavering resolve to the Israeli public. The US mediates with Egyptian and Qatari counterparts to resume dialogues, acting as though political and military strategies are complementary and concurrent. Netanyahu’s pursuit of multiple strategies without immediate repercussions suggests top-down management, avoiding conflicts with key parties like Egypt, amid disputes over crossing openings and Salah al-Din Road [the main highway of the Gaza Strip]. Israel appears to be adopting a strategy of pragmatic negotiations in Rafah, progressing with security measures deep within Gaza and methodically advancing toward complete control of Gaza’s borders to preempt all potential scenarios. The US, in response, may hasten its calculations and assessments—not merely to affirm a strategic presence but to solidify the enduring alliance between the two nations. —Tarek Fahmy (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)
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